How Will Tariffs Impact Regional Banks?
Why Insight-Driven Agility Beats Waiting Out the Storm
With the announcement of new tariffs, financial markets are signaling turbulence ahead. JPMorgan has raised its global recession forecast to 60%, while Goldman Sachs is projecting increased inflation and a potential rise in unemployment to 4.5% by year-end. While tariffs may seem like a trade issue, their effects ripple quickly through local economies—and regional banks are right in the path.
When Headwinds Hit, Don't Drop the Sails—Adjust Course
If you've been in financial services long enough, you've seen this before: uncertainty hits, and the instinct is to pause, cut, or wait it out. But seasoned leaders know—this is when smart navigation matters most.
For the sailors in the room, this moment is familiar. You don't fight the wind; you use it. You watch the water, scan for gusts others miss, and adjust your heading with purpose. That’s what insight allows you to do. With the right tools, data, and mindset, banks can chart a better course—while others drift.
What Should Banks Be Watching?
Tariffs may not appear on a balance sheet, but their effects show up fast in the behaviors of your clients. For regional and mid-sized banks, expect to see:
Rising credit risk in impacted sectors like agriculture and logistics
A slowdown in business lending as capital investments are delayed
Deposit fluctuations driven by cash flow challenges
Increased servicing needs from stressed small businesses
Possible softening in commercial real estate demand
Move from Reacting to Responding
The most resilient banks are using this moment to get sharper, not quieter. Here’s how:
Segment Clients by Exposure
Use internal data to understand which clients—by industry, geography, or past behavior—are most at risk.Train Teams to Spot Early Signals
Empower frontline employees to notice the cues: payment extension requests, changes in credit line usage, or tone shifts in conversations.Track Behavior, Not Just Balances
Monitor service volumes, payment patterns, and digital engagement. The data will often speak before the customer does.Break Down Silos
Ensure credit, service, sales, and leadership teams are operating from a shared view. When everyone sees the full picture, you move faster—and smarter.
Insight Needs to Be a Habit, Not a Handoff
Building resilience isn’t about endless reports or drawn-out strategy meetings. It's about making insight part of your organization's DNA—from the C-suite to the front lines.
In today’s environment, platforms like Financial Services Cloud, Data Cloud, and AI assistants give every team member the power to explore, question, and act. But it’s not just about the tools—it’s about the mindset.
Learning how to prompt for the right insight—and pausing to fact-check it—is just as important. In a world that values speed, critical thinking keeps us accurate. The challenge with fast-turn work is ensuring your teams are trained not just to move quickly, but to think clearly.
Stay Curious. Stay Decisive.
Tariffs are external. How you respond is internal. Insight-driven organizations are the ones that move forward while others stall. By staying curious, aligned, and ready to adjust course, banks can navigate uncertainty—not just survive it.
